Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
